⚠ Energy Crisis March 07, 2026 · Piraeus, GR

Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock: What 20% of Global Supply at Risk Means for Markets

The IRGC closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the most severe energy supply disruption in modern history. WTI has surged 38% in a week. Here's what the data says about where prices go from here.

By Ilias Zouroudis · Independent Market Analyst
WTI $90.12 +38% THIS WEEK BRENT $93.41 HORMUZ TRAFFIC ↓83% 150+ TANKERS STRANDED 20M BBL/DAY AT RISK LNG AT 2022 HIGHS WTI $90.12 +38% THIS WEEK BRENT $93.41 HORMUZ TRAFFIC ↓83% 150+ TANKERS STRANDED 20M BBL/DAY AT RISK LNG AT 2022 HIGHS
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Active disruption: The IRGC officially closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, 2026. Tanker traffic collapsed from 24 to 4 vessels/day — an 83% reduction. Over 150 tankers are currently anchored outside UAE ports.
Key Numbers
Global supply affected
20%
~20.7M barrels per day normally transiting the strait
Seaborne oil trade
27%
Of all global maritime oil shipments pass through Hormuz
Bypass capacity
13%
Only ~2.6M bbl/day can bypass via Saudi/UAE pipelines
WTI price today
$90
Up from ~$64 just days ago. 52-week high: $92.61
LNG also blocked
20%
Of global LNG trade — no pipeline alternative exists
Supply Disruption — Flow Impact
Normal daily transit20.7M bbl/day — 100%
Pre-crisis baseline
Current flow (–83% traffic)~3.5M bbl/day
~17% of normal
Pipeline bypass capacity2.6M bbl/day
12.5% of normal
Net supply gap~17M bbl/day missing
82% of flow missing
WTI Price Scenarios
ScenarioWTIvs Today
Diplomatic resolutionCeasefire, flows resume
$65–70
–28%
Partial closure, 1 monthGoldman Sachs baseline
$85–95
±0%
Prolonged full closureEY-Parthenon estimate
$100–110
+15%
Worst case / tail risk3× severity of 1973 embargo
$120+
+33%
Fitch contrarianMarket oversupplied
$63
–30%
Countries Most Exposed
🇨🇳
China
84%
🇮🇳
India
60%
🇯🇵
Japan
~55%
🇰🇷
South Korea
~50%
🇪🇺
Europe
~20%
% of oil imports from Hormuz corridor
WTI Historical Context
2008 — All-time high$147.27
2022 — Ukraine war$130
2026 — Today$90.12
2025 — Pre-crisis low$54.98
2020 — COVID negative–$37.63
NYMEX Trading Hours (Athens EET)
🟢 Open: Sun–Fri 01:00 → 00:00
🔴 Break: Daily 00:00 → 01:00
🔥 Peak vol: 16:00 → 21:30 EET
© 2026 Ilias Zouroudis · analysis.zouroudis.com
Sources: Goldman Sachs, EY-Parthenon, Fitch Ratings, CME Group / NYMEX, Reuters, NYT · Data as of March 07, 2026 · For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.