OPEC+ CUTS 3.24M BBL/DAY STILL IN PLACE
KAZAKHSTAN COMPLIANCE 61%
IRAQ COMPLIANCE 54%
BRENT PRE-CRISIS $63/BBL
IEA: 5M BBL/DAY OVERSUPPLY Q1
NON-OPEC SUPPLY +1.7M BBL/DAY
OPEC+ CUTS 3.24M BBL/DAY STILL IN PLACE
KAZAKHSTAN COMPLIANCE 61%
IRAQ COMPLIANCE 54%
BRENT PRE-CRISIS $63/BBL
IEA: 5M BBL/DAY OVERSUPPLY Q1
NON-OPEC SUPPLY +1.7M BBL/DAY
Key Numbers
Total cuts in place
3.24M
Barrels per day withheld from market — ~3% of global demand
Group compliance rate
67%
Aggregate OPEC+ compliance as of April 2025 — down from 82% peak
Cumulative overproduction
4.78M
Total bbl overproduced Jan 2024–Jul 2025 across all members
IEA Q1 2026 surplus forecast
5M
Barrels per day projected inventory build — one of largest in recent history
Non-OPEC supply growth
+1.7M
Bbl/day from US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana — outpacing demand growth of 760K
The Coalition's Current Position
2.2M bbl/day cuts (Nov 2023) — being unwoundPartially restored
1.65M bbl/day cuts (Apr 2023) — paused in Q1 2026On hold
Compensation cuts owed (H1 2026)829K bbl/day
Pledged not yet delivered
Non-OPEC supply growth 20261.7M bbl/day
Compliance by Country (2025)
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
~98%
Minimal
GOOD
🇷🇺 Russia
65%
+340K bpd
POOR
🇮🇶 Iraq
54%
+280K bpd
POOR
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
61%
+410K bpd
POOR
🇦🇪 UAE
~75%
+55K bpd
FAIR
🇰🇼 Kuwait / Oman
~90%
Minor
GOOD
"The compensation mechanism has become a fiscal fiction rather than a market reality."
Goldman Sachs analysts, 2025
Why Countries Cheat
FISCAL BREAKEVEN PRICES
Iraq needs $98/bbl, Algeria $105/bbl, Nigeria $127/bbl to balance budgets — far above current prices.
TECHNICAL CONSTRAINTS
Kazakhstan's Kashagan field cannot swing production by more than 50K bpd without risking reservoir damage. Compliance is physically difficult.
NO ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM
OPEC+ has no legal penalties for overproduction — only diplomatic pressure from Saudi Arabia and reputational consequences.
Price Impact & Forward Outlook
BRENT JAN 2026
$60.75
Down 18% in 2025 — worst annual drop since COVID
BRENT PRE-HORMUZ
$63.00
Where market was trading before the strait closure — under pressure from oversupply
JPMORGAN WARNING
$40
Floor price if OPEC+ fails to act — JPMorgan warned further cuts may be needed in 2026
The Hormuz crisis has temporarily rescued OPEC+ from its own compliance crisis — pushing WTI from $64 to $90 in days. But the structural problem remains: the coalition is producing more than it should, non-OPEC supply keeps growing, and demand growth is modest. If the strait reopens, prices will face renewed downward pressure unless OPEC+ can finally enforce discipline on its most persistent cheaters.
— Ilias Zouroudis, March 2026